Possible scenario
Commercial Flywheel Accelerates
45% Chance
SpaceX's 90% commercial revenue mix proves durable as Starlink subscriber growth and Starship transport revenue compound through 2027. The company becomes less dependent on NASA and Pentagon awards while using lower launch costs to widen its lead in broadband, mobility, and commercial payload markets.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Telecommunications +0.4%
Tickers
- SPCX+6.4%
- VSAT-1.5%
- ASTS+1.2%
- RKLB+0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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