Possible scenario
China Demand Weakens
34% Chance
China's property slump remains the dominant drag on steel demand, and infrastructure spending is not enough to offset weaker construction activity. Iron-ore prices fall further as mills reduce restocking and traders mark down expectations for 2027 imports.
Initial impacts
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -2.4%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- VALE-3.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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