Possible scenario
Crackdown Intensifies
25% Chance
Authorities may respond to the leader’s insult and renewed mobilization with another wave of arrests, travel restrictions, and limits on rallies. This would deepen concerns over institutional independence and could modestly weigh on India-linked risk sentiment over the next trading sessions.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
- Technology -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.