Contained Opposition Standoff

The most likely path is a noisy but contained confrontation: the freed Cockroach Party leader keeps attacking Narendra Modi and the election chief, while authorities allow limited demonstrations under heavy policing. The government avoids a broader escalation because a sustained crackdown could draw more domestic and foreign criticism before the next election phase.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.