Possible scenario
Western Backing Solidifies
20% Chance
The United States and European allies continue accepting Ukrainian deep-strike operations against Russian military and energy infrastructure linked to the war effort. This reinforces Ukraine's campaign but also keeps a moderate geopolitical risk premium in markets.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Energy -0.3%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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