Possible scenario
Refinery Pressure Persists
45% Chance
Ukraine continues prioritizing long-range drone attacks on Russian refining, storage, and logistics nodes from Moscow to the Volga Basin. Russia absorbs the strikes but faces recurring outages, higher domestic fuel-management costs, and pressure on exportable refined products.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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