Possible scenario
West Bank Escalation
24% Chance
The Al-Aqsa incident becomes a rallying point across the West Bank, producing sustained clashes, strikes and Israeli raids. This scenario is plausible because Al-Aqsa has repeatedly served as a mobilizing symbol and because settler violence and closures have already raised tensions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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