Possible scenario
IRS Guidance Holds
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Treasury and the IRS preserve the core of the expanded notice after public comments, treating selected box-spread and straddle transactions as listed or reportable transactions. Enforcement focuses on high-net-worth taxpayers, family offices, and promoters rather than ordinary listed-options users.
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Business Services +0.3%
Tickers
- CBOE-1.9%
- IBKR-1.5%
- SCHW-0.4%
- MS-0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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