Possible scenario
Criminal Case Dominates
30% Chance
The investigation proceeds mainly through the UK criminal justice system while ministers avoid immediate escalation with Tehran. This path is plausible because police already made arrests and the government may prefer a prosecutable case before broader retaliation.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.2%
- Consumer Services -0.2%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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