Possible scenario
Government Contains Fallout
45% Chance
The UK government keeps the issue framed as a historical national-security failure rather than a basis to reopen Brexit legitimacy. Ministers promise limited transparency while arguing there is no evidence that Russian activity changed the referendum result.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.1%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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