Possible scenario
Formal Inquiry Opens
30% Chance
Political pressure forces the prime minister to accept a more formal process into Russian activity around the 2016 vote. The inquiry is likely to focus on intelligence handling, campaign-finance vulnerabilities, and online influence operations rather than the legal validity of Brexit itself.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.3%
- Business Services +0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.