Possible scenario
Contained Personnel Fallout
35% Chance
The White House treats the matter as a personnel and vetting failure rather than a collapse of Congo policy. Habba Mildon is removed from Congo-related discussions, but the administration keeps the minerals-for-security framework with Kinshasa intact.
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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