Regional Military Escalation

A further incident or hard evidence of IRGC involvement pushes the US, UK, UAE, or Israel toward coercive action. This path is less likely than containment but would create the largest immediate oil and risk-asset moves because Hormuz carries a major share of seaborne oil flows.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.