Possible scenario
Escorts Contain Crisis
40% Chance
The most likely path is a rapid security response led by the US Fifth Fleet, UAE Navy, and allied mine-countermeasure units without immediate strikes on Iran. Transit continues but becomes slower, costlier, and more militarized as insurers and shippers wait for a safer corridor.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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