Possible scenario
Diplomatic De-escalation
25% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and possibly China press Tehran and Abu Dhabi to prevent the mine crisis from widening. Iran may deny responsibility while quietly signaling safer routing, allowing markets to partially unwind the immediate risk premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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