Possible scenario
Infrastructure War Expands
25% Chance
Moscow broadens retaliation from Kyiv-focused strikes to a coordinated campaign against Ukrainian power, rail, and industrial infrastructure. This would resemble prior Russian winter campaigns and could increase short-term energy and defense-risk premia.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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