Possible scenario
Contained Retaliation Continues
45% Chance
Russia sustains nightly drone and missile attacks on Kyiv for several more days but avoids a step-change in targets or tactics. Ukraine continues air-defense interception and selective attacks on Russian logistics nodes, keeping the escalation largely inside the existing war pattern.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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