Possible scenario
Wider Allied Compromise
18% Chance
The inquiry broadens beyond Germany and the U.K., with NATO partners reviewing whether Azerbaijan-linked reporting channels or allied liaison material were compromised. This would be a materially more serious geopolitical development, though still below a systemic market crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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