Possible scenario
Negotiated U.S. Exit
40% Chance
Trump’s statement becomes the opening for a mediated off-ramp after U.S. strikes degrade Iranian launch sites and command nodes. Oman, Qatar, and European intermediaries push Tehran and Washington toward a ceasefire framework that lets both sides claim deterrence worked.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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