Possible scenario
Messy Military Pause
25% Chance
Trump orders a halt to major strikes but avoids a binding ceasefire, leaving U.S. forces, tankers, and bases exposed. The pause lowers immediate escalation risk, but Iran and U.S. allies test whether Washington is truly leaving the conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.7%
- Industrials +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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