Possible scenario
Iran Tests Limits
20% Chance
Iran concludes Trump’s exit language reflects U.S. reluctance to continue fighting and probes for leverage. Tehran or aligned militias attack shipping, bases, or energy infrastructure without initially triggering a full U.S. re-entry into the air campaign.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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