Possible scenario
October Hold Prevails
45% Chance
The most likely path is that the weak payrolls report and softer core PCE keep the Federal Reserve from raising rates at the October meeting. Gold remains supported by lower real-rate expectations, while broader markets treat the move as a routine macro repricing rather than a crisis signal.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Utilities +0.6%
- Finance -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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