Possible scenario
Hike Risk Returns
25% Chance
A less likely but plausible outcome is that investors decide markets moved too far in dismissing an October hike. Sticky inflation data or hawkish Fed commentary would lift yields and the dollar, pressuring gold and rate-sensitive equities.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.8%
- Finance +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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