Possible scenario
Dovish Repricing Deepens
20% Chance
Markets may move beyond simply pricing out an October hike and start assigning greater weight to later Fed easing if labor weakness broadens. Gold would benefit from falling yields, though the equity reaction would depend on whether investors read the data as disinflationary or recessionary.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Utilities +0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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