Possible scenario
Second Mainland Landfall
15% Chance
Polo or its remnants retain enough structure over the Gulf of California to deliver a second landfall risk in Sonora or northern Sinaloa. This would expand the affected area and increase infrastructure and agricultural losses, though still mainly a Mexico-regional event.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Industrials -0.3%
- Utilities -0.2%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.1%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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