Possible scenario
Limited Military Clash
30% Chance
A contained exchange occurs after Iranian or proxy forces target U.S., Israeli, or Gulf assets. Washington uses carrier airpower and standoff weapons against launchers, radars, or IRGC naval facilities while trying to avoid regime-level escalation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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