Possible scenario
Hormuz Disruption Deepens
20% Chance
Iran or IRGC-linked forces sharply expand attacks on energy shipping, forcing insurers, tanker operators, and Gulf producers to reduce flows through the Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. begins convoy operations, but markets price a real supply interruption risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Copper Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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