Possible scenario
Deterrence Holds
38% Chance
The three-carrier deployment succeeds mainly as coercive signaling, discouraging Iran from direct attacks on U.S. assets while backchannels through Oman and Qatar reopen. Shipping risks remain elevated, but Washington avoids immediate strikes beyond defensive intercepts.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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