Possible scenario
Managed Upstream Revival
45% Chance
Joaquín Gutiérrez uses the CEO mandate to rebuild Ecopetrol's reserve pipeline without fully reversing Colombia's 2023 ban on new exploration contracts. The most likely path is a pragmatic revival through existing blocks, enhanced recovery, offshore appraisal and farm-outs rather than an abrupt ideological break with President Gustavo Petro's energy transition agenda.
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.3%
Tickers
- PXT+2.3%
- FEC+1.9%
- GPRK+1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.