Possible scenario
Paxton Takes Damage
18% Chance
The controversy becomes a serious political liability for Paxton even if no direct criminal exposure is established. Republican donors, Texas officials, and national strategists worry that the Iran leak story could weaken the party in the general election.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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