Possible scenario
Investigations Widen
30% Chance
Congressional Democrats and some national-security Republicans use Trump's defense of Paxton to demand more information on who accessed the Iran plans. The story remains primarily political, but the broader inquiry creates modest risk-off sentiment because it touches military decision-making and DOJ independence.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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