Possible scenario
Fallout Stays Contained
40% Chance
Trump's defense of Ken Paxton becomes a short-lived political controversy rather than a broader national-security scandal. DOJ and congressional Republicans keep the focus on identifying the source of the leaked Iran plans, while Paxton remains the Texas GOP standard-bearer.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.2%
- Technology +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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