Possible scenario
Sanders Expands Michigan
38% Chance
Bernie Sanders responds to Democratic pressure by moving a meaningful share of his $23 million operation into Michigan. The most likely effect is stronger turnout infrastructure for Abdul El-Sayed and down-ballot Democrats in a state where polling has tightened to roughly a one-point race.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Healthcare -0.2%
- Finance -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.