Possible scenario
GOP Holds Advantage
22% Chance
Sanders either delays major Michigan spending or is outmatched by Republican and outside conservative funding. Mike Rogers and GOP-aligned groups keep the race focused on inflation, crime, and El-Sayed’s progressive record.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.2%
- Healthcare +0.1%
- Energy +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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