Possible scenario
Voluntary Regime Prevails
25% Chance
The administration keeps AI governance inside the voluntary safety accord announced in September, using Anthropic’s $1 billion threshold as guidance rather than statute. This path fits the recent White House preference for voluntary commitments and agency coordination over binding federal legislation.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.6%
- Business Services +0.4%
Tickers
- META+1.0%
- NVDA+0.5%
- MSFT+0.3%
- PLTR+0.3%
- +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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