Possible scenario
Waiver Diplomacy Works
20% Chance
Washington and New Delhi negotiate a temporary exemption tied to verified reductions in Russian crude imports. This outcome limits near-term disruption to trade and oil supply while preserving U.S. political pressure on Moscow.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.3%
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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