Possible scenario
Rapid Russian Exit
25% Chance
Indian buyers move faster than expected to avoid exposure to U.S. tariffs, with state refiners leading the retreat from Russian spot crude. Replacement barrels come from the Middle East, West Africa, and the United States, lifting benchmark crude prices and pressuring Indian refining margins.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.4%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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