Possible scenario
Revision Proves Temporary
25% Chance
The stronger Q2 print is later viewed as backward-looking and distorted by tariff timing, trade flows, and inventory adjustments. Weak retail sales from August remain a warning sign that private demand may be losing momentum into Q3.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Copper Down
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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