Possible scenario
Growth Resilience Confirmed
40% Chance
The Q2 revision is treated as evidence that underlying private demand was stronger than the initial 1.5% GDP print implied. Markets increasingly conclude that tariff distortions and noisy inventories masked a still-resilient expansion.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Copper Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.6%
- Finance
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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