Possible scenario
U.S.-China AI Escalation
18% Chance
The case reinforces U.S. claims that Chinese AI firms improperly accessed or extracted value from American models. The near-term escalation would likely be regulatory and legal rather than a full trade shock, but it could weigh on AI software sentiment and cross-border technology partnerships.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.0%
- Telecommunications -0.3%
Tickers
- MSFT-0.6%
- AMZN-0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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