Possible scenario
Broader AI Crackdown
25% Chance
Authorities use the DeepSeek and Moonshot case to tighten supervision across Chinese foundation-model firms, cloud providers, and data vendors. This would create a larger sector overhang, especially for companies using foreign APIs, overseas data-labeling pipelines, or Hong Kong fundraising channels.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -2.3%
- Telecommunications -0.7%
- Business Services +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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