Possible scenario
Rupiah Stress Tightens
20% Chance
Equity selling spills further into the currency market, forcing Bank Indonesia to prioritize rupiah stability over growth support. The immediate market reaction is a tighter financial-conditions shock for Indonesian banks and rate-sensitive companies.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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