Possible scenario
Policy Backstop Stabilizes
35% Chance
Bank Indonesia, the Financial Services Authority and the Indonesia Stock Exchange respond quickly with liquidity support, FX smoothing and market-stability messaging. This is the most likely path because officials have strong incentives to prevent forced selling before MSCI makes any formal classification decision.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.