Possible scenario
Downgrade Path Hardens
30% Chance
Investors conclude that MSCI is likely to proceed unless Indonesia makes rapid market-access concessions. Passive and benchmark-aware funds reduce exposure in advance, extending losses in banks, telecoms and consumer shares.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -1.0%
- Telecommunications -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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