Possible scenario
Regional War Deepens
31% Chance
The conflict escalates from a renewed Tigray insurgency into a broader Ethiopia-Eritrea-TPLF war. Fighting threatens Afar logistics routes and raises the risk of wider Red Sea and Horn of Africa instability, though the immediate global market effect is still smaller than a major-power conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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