Possible scenario
Diplomacy Freezes Fighting
22% Chance
The African Union, United States, and Gulf intermediaries press Addis Ababa, Asmara, and TPLF leaders to stop the fighting before it spreads. This does not fully restore the 2022 peace deal, but it could create a monitored pause or narrower security arrangement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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