Possible scenario
Contained Afar Front
34% Chance
Eritrean forces reinforce Ethiopian federal positions in Afar, but the conflict remains concentrated around Abala, border roads, and contested approaches to Tigray. The 2022 Pretoria framework is effectively dead, but neither side immediately gains enough momentum to force a decisive settlement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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