Possible scenario
Allies Build Alternatives
25% Chance
European governments conclude that US-controlled Starlink access is no longer dependable and accelerate procurement of satellite and terrestrial backup links for Ukraine. This does not immediately replace Starlink scale, but it shifts contracts toward European and allied providers.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
- Telecommunications +0.8%
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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