Possible scenario
Access Remains Constrained
30% Chance
The dispute remains unresolved, with Ukraine reporting degraded connectivity in contested areas and Trump insisting that US support must be tied to peace talks. SpaceX avoids a total cutoff but keeps some limits that complicate Ukrainian command-and-control operations.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.0%
- Technology -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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