Possible scenario
Kremlin Security Purge
20% Chance
The Kremlin frames the loss as an intelligence and operational-security failure, leading to arrests, dismissals, and tighter internal controls. This outcome is plausible because prior Ukrainian deep strikes have repeatedly exposed Russian security lapses and triggered blame inside the defense establishment.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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